AN ANALYSIS OF CASH DEPOSITS – PATTERN IN COMMERCIAL BANKS FROM 1998 TO 2007

AN ANALYSIS OF CASH DEPOSITS – PATTERN IN COMMERCIAL BANKS FROM 1998 TO 2007

ABSTRACT

Any banking or financial sector’s success or failure, effectiveness or ineffectiveness, is determined by the extent of customer patronage and the financial resources available to form and procure the necessary service-oriented facilities. There are numerous banking-related issues in Nigeria. Inadequate financial capacity, i.e. a low capital base, a lack of sound technical planning, poor implementation of formulated policies linking banking operations, insufficient supervision and monitoring of economic changes, and large-scale financial embezzlement are among the issues. As a result of these issues, many financial institutions are in distress and are forced to close. As a result, the study examined the cash deposits pattern of commercial banks over the previous ten years, using fidelity bank Plc, Owerri as a case study. This is based on data. Technical research was obtained from secondary sources; these data were cash deposits of customers who patronized fidelity bank plc Owerri between 1998 and 2007. Time series models were used to analyze the data in a systematic manner. The study discovered an annual decrease in the rate of cash deposit patterns in fidelity bank plc Owerri as a commercial bank study unit. Finally, the study provided some solutions as well as some excellent and worthwhile recommendations.

CONTENTS TABLE

Title Page – – – – – – – I

Page of Approval – – – – – – ii

Dedication – – – – – – – – iii

Acknowledgement – – – – – – – iv

Abstract – – – – – – – – – v

Table of Contents

CHAPITRE ONE

1.0 General Introduction – – – – – – – 1

1.1 Problem Statement – – – –

1.2 Study Purpose – – – – 4

1.3 Hypothesis Statement – – – –

1.4 Study Scope – – – – 6

1.5 Study Restrictions – – – – 6

1.6 Study Importance – – – – 7

1.7 Study Goal – – – – 7

1.8 Glossary – – – – – 8

CHAPITRE TWO

2.0 Review of Literature – – – – 9

CHAPITRE THREE

The Methodology of Research

3.0 Data Source – – – – 30

3.1 Sampling Method – – – – 30

3.2 Analytical Methods – – – – 30

3.3 Time Sequence – – – – – – – 30

Models of Time Series – – – – – – 31

3.5 Trend Prediction – – – – 32

3.6 Least Squares Method – – – – – 32

3.7 Moving Average Method

– – – – – 33

CHAPITRE FOUR

4.0 Data Analysis and Presentation- – – 34

4.1 Statement of Cash Deposits in Quarters – – 39

4.2 Annual Production Statement

4.3 Data Analysis – – – 40

4.4 Predictions – – – – – – – 42

4.5 Original Information – – – – – – – 43

Seasonal Index: 4.6 – – – – – – – 47

4.7 Hypothesis Test – – – 50

List of Graphs

Figure 1: Bar graph depicting annual cash deposits – 49

Figure 1: A diagram depicting the annual rise and fall of fidelity bank Plc’s cash-deposit pattern in Owerri.

CHAPITRE FIVE

5.0 Discoveries – – – – – – – – 57

5.1 Final Thoughts – – – – – – – 58

5.2 Advice – – – – 60

Bibliography 61

CHAPTER ONE

1.0   INTRODUCTION

The need to monitor, evaluate, and plan for the future compels managers, scientists of various disciplines, and researchers to collect data on processes that change over time on a regular basis. Time series are observations on such processes that are arranged in chronological order (in time sequence). A time series is a collection of data that has been collected sequentially over time. Time series examples include customer daily cash deposits, bank weekly recorded cash deposits, and a company’s weekly or monthly stock levels, as well as the number of patients treated by a specific hospital per year.

Time series analysis is the process of analyzing and interpreting these data. Analysis of time series

is extremely important in business and economic forecasting.

We tend to forecast cash-deposit results based on what has happened in the past. The time series is a statistical series that tells us how data behaved in the past. It gives us the values of the variables we’re interested in at various points in time over the last ten years. Time series can be divided into the following categories:

SECULAR TREND: The general direction in which the figures appear to be moving over a long period of time. It is critical to distinguish between trends caused by the economy’s cyclical influence. Consider a shift in a customer’s purchasing habits. The keeping of a secular

Trend can indicate an upward, downward, or steady trend.

SEASONAL VARIATIONS: It is common knowledge and a clear view to all that the value of many variables depends partly on the time of year in question. For example, everyone knows that the rate of cash-deposits of customers is usually high from March to November, when customers stock their cash in banks, that is in order of months.

CYCLICAL VARIATION: As the economy expands during a boom period, we would expect such data as cash deposits, cash withdrawals, or customer expenditure and sales rate to show a rising trend, whereas during a slump period, we would expect them to show a downward trend. Thus

A wave-like motion can be seen in our data pattern.

IRREGULAR VARIATION: These are random outside events that influence our variables. May are also known as random variations because they are caused by sporadic events such as strikes, earthquakes, floods, fires, and riots, all of which are unpredictable.

It is obvious that time series analysis will aid in determining the trend that will guide this industry or sector in forecasting and other competitive management decisions. Sponsoring the national football league and all national volley ball leagues or basket ball leagues are just a few examples of how to create a conducive environment or climate for business. “We keep our word,” is their management slogan.

1.1   STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The primary determinant of a bank’s financial status is cash deposits and withdrawals. In a highly competitive industry like banking, this issue poses some serious challenges and responsibilities to the baking sector, of which fidelity bank plc Owerri is a victim.

What is their recorded cash-deposit and financial base level? Do these records fall short of the standard that earned them a place in the financial or banking sector? Analysis of cash-deposit transactions is only an information service, and as such, it must be conditioned by the process to which it is applied, or it will only lead to false sense in the industries. This research is being conducted in response to these questions.

1.2   PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

The study’s goal is to address the growing need to monitor an economy’s performance. Time series analysis is used to determine deposit trends, which can then be used to forecast or predict future results.

Managers and governments require an understanding of the past and current pattern of change in cash-deposit rates in order to forecast.

This study was started with the intention of providing it to those who may require it as a basis for forecasting and decision making, both of which are tools for economic growth and standardization.

1.3   STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS

A study of this type of phenomenon will necessitate the formulation of some hypotheses.

A hypothesis is a statement that can be opposed or supported depending on the outcome of the analysis.

H0: There has been no significant change in cash deposits over the last ten years.

H1: There has been a significant difference in cash deposits over the last ten years.

H0: There is no increase in the cash-deposit rate.

H1: The cash-deposit rate is increasing.

Ho: In time series data, there is no significant change in the cash deposit output rate.

H1: Time series data show a significant change in the cash deposit output rate.

1.4   SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This study is restricted to cash deposits made at fidelity bank Plc, Owerri, and it spans ten (10) years, from 1998 to 2007.

1.5   LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The financial or banking sector has been defined by fierce and unyielding competition and rivalry. As a result, basic information about cash deposits and withdrawals is always kept strictly confidential. This is one of the setbacks or problems encountered during the sector data collection process.

Management’s hesitant compliance to release authentic data for fear of other sister industries learning about their financial performance and level of customer patronage in a competitive environment contributed a hydra-headed limitation to this research.

1.6   SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The significance of this great effort is to examine the rate of cash-deposits in the Fidelity Bank Plc, Owerri, which is very relevant to both the company’s management and staff. It is hoped that it will assist management and staff in effectively planning for desired change and improvement aimed at accessing and revealing the strengths and weaknesses of fidelity Bank Plc, Owerri’s cash-deposits segment.

1.7      OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

To investigate the cash-deposit pattern of fidelity bank, which serves as the foundation for its growth?

To forecast future estimates by determining the trend of its cash-deposits rate.

Deseasonalization of cash-deposit data from 1998 to 2007.

To provide suggestions and solutions for banking improvements.

1.8   DEFINITION OF TERMS

The action of putting money in a bank is referred to as cash deposit.