TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE RATE OF TYPHOID FEVER

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE RATE OF TYPHOID FEVER

CHAPTER ONE

1.0  INTRODUCTION

1.1  BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Typhoid fever is a worldwide disease that poses a serious public health threat. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that one person in every hundred (100) suffers from typhoid fever in many developing countries. They also identify typhoid as a serious public health problem, with the highest incidence in children and young adults aged 5 to 19.

Typhoid fever is a systemic disease caused by the spread of salmonella typhoid or salmonella paratyphoid, characterized primarily by fever, and was named due to its resemblance to typhus. It was clearly defined pathologically as a distinct disease of its own; it is a common global illness spread by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the faces of infected people.

Salmonella enterica is a bacterium found in humans. The bacteria are then phagocytosed by macrophages after perforating the intestinal wall.

According to the medial dictionary (Budelka, K.G. 1971), typhoid fever is an infection that is typically spread through contamination of food, milk, or water supply with salmonella typhi (S. typhil), either directly by sewage or indirectly by flies or faulty personal hygiene. The main sources of disease outbreaks in this country are symptomless carriers who harbor the germ in their gall bladder and excrete it in their stools. Incubation lasts 10-14 days on average. The onset of disease is marked by a progressive fedric illness, which occurs when the germ invades tymphoid tissues, including those of the small intestine (peyers patches). profuse diarrhocal (pea soup) stools that can become quite hemorrhagic, ultimate recovery usually begins around the end of the third week. At the end of the first week, a rose-colored rash may appear on the upper abdomen and back.

1.2  STATE OF PROBLEM

Over the last decade, there has been an alarming increase in the number of typhoid fever cases recorded in our various hospitals, particularly in Abia state. This has raised serious concerns in the minds of citizens in particular, and professionals in our medical field in general. Ordinary, because typhoid fever is generally associated with a variety of symptoms such as fever, headache, cough, and so on, it is a complicated disease with severe economic and social consequences for victims. This study aims to determine the prevalence of typhoid fever and to propose potential prevention strategies.

1.3  AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The following are the study’s goals and objectives.

1 To estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) from 2001 to 2010, whether it is increasing or decreasing.

2 To estimate the seasonal variation in typhoid fever cases recorded between 2001 and 2010.

3 To forecast the prevalence rate in the future.

1.4  SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This project is significant in that the typhoid fever health problem in this part of the world makes it a serious health issue that requires adequate attention and care. This research will be extremely valuable in the following ways:

– This study will assist hospital administration, the state government, and the general public in determining which months or quarters of the year were most affected by typhoid fever in order to carry out an education campaign aimed at reducing the disease’s incidence.

– If the trend of reported cases of typhoid fever is found to be increasing, hospital management will be able to focus their efforts on implementing more preventive measures to combat the disease.

1.5  STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS

From 2001 to 2010, there was no significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever.

Hi: From 2001 to 2010, the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever increased significantly.

Ho: There is no seasonal variation in typhoid fever cases reported between 2001 and 2010.

Hi: From 2001 to 2010, there is seasonal variation in typhoid fever cases.

1.6  SCOPE OF STUDY

This research will focus on Aba, the commercial capital of Abia state. Aba is a city in Abia state and a major trading center. It will also cover a ten (10) year period (2001-2010).

1.7  LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The main limitation of this research work was the collection of data, and information is considered confidential; additionally, there was insufficient assessment of the data due to the hospital medical record department’s unwillingness to release the data on time, as well as the limited available literature, which the researcher was able to lay her hands on after much time wasted.