Statistics play an important role in almost every aspect of human life. This role is used to analyze a project aimed at determining the crime rate in Kuje-Abuja. This analysis is intended for correction, updating, and forecasting future conformance events. The project’s goals are the criminal offenses in Kuje. The project is divided into five chapters; chapter one contains an introduction to the project as well as the historical background of Kuje Police Station, asa well as the project’s goals and objectives. The second chapter contains the literature review, which is relevant to the project topic. In addition, in the same chapter two, the statistical tools used will be discussed, along with the necessary information on crime categories. Chapter three will focus on the Methodology and data presentation refer to the method of data collection, as well as the source of data and any problems encountered during data collection. Chapter four is based on data analysis collected while achieving the goals set out in Chapter 1.3 under general goals and specific objectives, as well as using statistical tools relevant to the project topic. Chapter five contains the findings, conclusion, and recommendations, as well as a bibliography of what has been discussed throughout the project. Finally, I hope that this project will provide the Nuhu Bamalli Polytechnic library, the Department of Mathematics and Statistics library, and all members of the institute with something to comprehend and learn from, as well as something useful to read as a source of data and inspiration.



The government’s and civilization’s growing desire to improve the maintenance of law and order and to engage in crime prevention has resulted in a search for data on all aspects of crime. This will allow the government to determine whether crime is rising or falling.

In the ordinary sense, a crime is an act or offence that is punishable by law. Crime is defined as any act that disrupts a society. Examples of crimes include robbery, kidnapping, rape, and theft.

As a result, anyone who violates the law should be arrested, tried, and immediately sentenced to time in prison if found guilty. Criminals are supposed to be reformed and taught to follow the rules in prison.

and regulation set down or order to govern the society properly.

Despite security agencies’ efforts to reduce crime in our society, the rate of crime is increasing at an alarming rate. This is a common practice in society, particularly among young people. Many steps have been taken to eliminate this abnormal behavior from our society, but the situation remains the same as criminal cases occur on a daily basis.

A prison is a facility where people who have been convicted by a court of law are housed while they await trial. It is a structure built by the government to house anyone who violates the law.


There are numerous classifications of crime, but some of them are as follows:

1. Crime against people: This includes rape, kidnapping, murder (homicide), robbery, and other serious offenses.

2. Property crime: Automobile theft, fraud, forgery, vandalism, and robbery. In most cases, these crimes may be punished more severely than crimes against people.

3. Disorderly conduct, gambling, prostitution, public drunkenness, and other crimes against public and moral order

These offenses typically carry harsher penalties.


There are numerous factors that contribute to crime. Criminologists have identified psychological, sociological, and heredity causes of crime in their research. While prison officers view crime as a human reaction to his environment, some crimes are caused by the following factors:

1. Economy: This is a significant source of crime in our country, Nigeria. Without work, many people roam the streets, and as a result, the devil offers them work in crime, particularly property crime.

2. After-War Effect: Following the civil war, many youths who had been trained in the use of weapons were left unemployed as a result of the increase in crime and violence. The migration from rural to urban areas, as well as the resulting unemployment, caused frustration.

As a result of the resulting poverty, destitution, and lack of the most basic necessities of life, the youths turn to crime, which appears to be profitable.

3. Political Activities: Political campaigns and elections in Nigeria are, regrettably, atrocious due to the masses’ political immaturity. Murder, looting, corruption, and rioting, among other things, were among the factors that encouraged criminal activity in our society.

In most cases, law enforcement agencies are powerless to intervene, particularly when wealthy or influential politicians are involved, or when the political party in power is involved. Also involved in this are embezzlement of public funds through contracts, nepotism, and corruption in the distribution of public offices and privileges. These are well-known crimes.


1. Retribution: This refers to harsh punishment for any wrongdoing. This objective, without a doubt, governs the minds of the Nigerian courts and the general public. When one is being sentenced to prison, section 4(1) of prison Decree 1972 (decree 9) stated that “subject to this section, the effect of sentence of imprisonment is with hard labour passed upon a prison shall be that the prisoner shall be imprisoned for the period of the sentence and during his imprisonment shall work at such labour as may be directed by the superintendant”. As a result, the puncture aspect was emphasized by this law.

2. Deterrence: This can also be viewed as a consequence or punishment set aside by the government to serve as a lesson to both the prisoner and the public.

and the general public.


According to the Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary, a prison is “a building where people are kept as a punishment for a crime they have committed.


1. Convict Prison: This prison receives all cases of prisoners, including long and short sentences, condemned criminals, and gazette cases, among others.

2. Divisional or provincial prison: It receives cases of people sentenced for less than 12 years. Long-term inmates may be found in this prison under special circumstances. For example, building, carpentry, and bricklaying, after which they must be returned to a convict prison.

3. Central prison: A central prison is one that governs all other prison activities in a given division and is led by the warden.

The prison controller general.

4. Prison camp: A facility where prisoners can learn skills such as carpentry, tailoring, bricklaying, music, and so on.


The Nigeria Police Force was founded in 1861. The consul complained at the time that he had numerous duties in addition to those entrusted to him by the police, and permission was sought from the British consular guard of 30 men in 1861. This was named after John Becroft, the British government’s representative. This small guard was renamed “Hausa Police” two years later, in 1863, due to the enlistment of some captured runaway slaves at Jebba by it. Worer R. N. expanded the Hausa Police in 1879 by recruiting more men, primarily from the Hausa, and renamed it the Hausa constabulary. It was commanded by an Inspector-General and had 1200 officers at the time.

of police. Duty was primarily military in nature. Although the men were expected to perform some civil duties, one of these military duties was the provision of an Arochukwu detachment of 8 officers and 251 men.

The Lagos Police Force, like the Hansa constabulary, was established on January 1, 1896. The arm was like this. It had a commissioner, two Assistant Commissioners, a superintendent, a quartermaster, and 250 other ranks. This force was primarily based in Lagos, while the constabulary was based in the north. The detective department was established in 1898, with one superintendent and 14 other ranks; from this grew our current Criminal Investigation Department (CID).

On October 1, 1963, Nigeria became a federal republic. The force was maintained.

As enacted in the Republican Constitution, administration is done on a federal level. The Divisional Police Station in Kuje Area, as it is known, was established on August 15, 1985, and the majority of its functions are to take charge of criminal offenses.

However, some of the criminal offenses recorded in Kuje Divisional Police Station between 1999 and 2007 include house breaking, theft, armed robbery, bribery and corruption, rape, and so on.


Criminal statistics data is the collection of data within a specific area over time, such as daily, weekly, or yearly. It is significant in that the data used in this project is criminal data collected from the Kuje Police Headquarters on criminal offenses recorded between 1999 and 2007.


The overall goal of this study is to estimate crime rates and use them to forecast future conditions.

1. To develop a model for calculating crime rates.

2. To determine whether the data can be used for the analysis, test the model’s normality (using a normal probability plot).

3. To forecast future criminal cases using a time series model.

4. To propose possible methods of eradicating crime.


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